The CQ | Ritual's Fertility Launch, Stan's $30M in ARR, OURA's Push into Metabolic Health
The CQ | Ritual's Fertility Launch, Stan's $30M in ARR, OURA's Push into Metabolic Health
Plus The Forerunner Team's Top Reads of the Week
The CQ is Forerunner’s weekly newsletter rounding up the most pressing consumer news and analysis, plus some bonus musings from our investment team. Subscribe now to get the latest edition in your inbox every weekend.
As we look ahead to the last quarter of the year, the Forerunner portfolio is in full swing with product launches and new milestones:
Ritual has continued to expand its ever-growing women’s health offering by launching Fertility Support, the only 3-in-1 supplement formulated to support conception outcomes that’s designed in partnership with OB/GYNs and fertility specialists.
Fora, the three-sided marketplace modernizing the travel agency model by enabling anyone with a passion to be a travel advisor, passed $500M worth of bookings since launch and is doing an average of $1.5M worth of bookings a day. :fire:
OURA is deepening its investment in metabolic health by acquiring Veri, by a personalized metabolic health company that guides people to the right foods and habits for their bodies through a CGM-enabled app.
Stan CEO John Hu details his journey scaling to $30M in ARR within two years all while building in public.
Duckbill’s CEO and Cofounder Meghan Joyce was on CBS to share Duckbill’s AI-powered, human-in-the-loop approach to making scaling the luxury of the personal assistant
Dutch’s Clinical Director talks to Washington Post about how telehealth has changed his job in a fun, comic strip style feature.
Up next: we’re looking forward to sharing the details on a few new companies we’ve invested in — everything from a new model for accessing coaching and educational content, to AI-powered, proactive personal health analysis, an infrastructure company enabling consumer trust within AI tools, as well as a search to service company in the travel space. More soon!
Job of the week: Daydream is hiring a Head of Social Media, an incredible opportunity for the right ambitious and creative candidate.
What We’re Talking About on Slack:
More good news on inflation: the CPI read came in at a 0.2% increase, putting inflation at 2.5%, the lowest it’s been since February 2021. More signs of a cooling economy: the U.S. jobs report shows hiring has shifted into lower gear, with employers adding 142,000 positions in August — below what economists expected. “This report does not indicate that we’re taking another step toward a recession, but we’re still seeing further signs of cooling. We’re trending more closely to a 2019 labor market, than the labor market in 2010 or 2011.” The Fed meets next week on September 18th, with all bets on a rate cut.
The ‘vibecession’ is ending as the U.S. economy nails a soft landing, economists say. Economic indicators and consumer sentiment are finally starting to align more closely, likely thanks to cooling inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts, which could further boost economic sentiment. According to the chief economist at the National Retail Federation, “The U.S. economy is clearly not in a recession nor is it likely to head into a recession in the home stretch of 2024. Instead, it appears that the economy is on the cusp of nailing a long-awaited soft landing with a simultaneous cooling of growth and inflation.”
The Covid pandemic left an extra 13 million Americans single. According to a new Stanford University study and recent government survey data, many people’s dating or social activities never rebounded after the pandemic’s social distancing was long over. This ‘dating recession’ is reshaping the American economy—from less traffic at full-service, sit-down restaurants to the delay of adult milestones like getting married, buying a house, and having children. “Rising costs have reinforced social isolation, putting food and nightlife businesses in a bind. When prices increase, customers stay home to save money, which isolates them further and gives them even fewer reasons to leave the house…Bars, restaurants and other social venues must break the cycle by asking: ‘How do we make that experience more exciting to people who have less reasons to go out than they did before?’”
More on this topic: The Atlantic takes a look at the friendship paradox. We all want more time with our friends, but we’re spending more time alone, according to several recent research reports. Americans now spend less than three hours a week with friends, compared with more than six hours a decade ago. More than 40% of respondents said they were not as emotionally close to their friends as they’d like, and a similar number wished they had more time to spend with their friends. Meanwhile, The Guardian reports on the “new social networks: ‘hobby apps’ designed around activities such as running (Strava), reading (GoodReads) or movie-going (Letterboxd), which just might provide people with the repeated opportunities needed to build friendships and even romantic relationships. “Because hobby apps are nicer places to exist [than dating apps and other social networks like X], people spend more time on them – and they can eventually turn into services that are more than advertised. That includes finding like-minded people with whom you’d want to spend your time romantically.”
The Wall Street Journal takes a peek at the state of America’s wallet in comparison to 2019, before the pandemic hit and the rise in inflation. A few key stats: Average 401(k) balances increased to about $127,000 from about $104,000 two years earlier. Real median earnings were about 3.5% higher, adjusted for inflation. The average credit-card debt for those who carry a balance rose to $6,218 from $5,834, and the overall number of active credit cards reached a record high of about 590 million active cards, 40 million more than in 2019. Higher interest rates have made carrying debt more costly, and delinquencies are rising.
Stores are small now. Many more brick-and-mortar stores opened than closed in the first half of this year. But what’s surprising is that, as of late last year, the average retail space size was the smallest it had been in nearly two decades. Leasing large retail spaces is expensive, not to mention staffing them and stocking them with a wide range of products in every size and color (and having to compete with the likes of Amazon). Now, even brands like Nordstrom and Macy’s are trying out smaller locations. “The new American store is not built just for buying stuff. Smaller stores are operating as ‘showrooms’—they’re focused on helping customers discover products in person that they can then order online. Put generously, such a store can educate consumers about a brand; less charitably, it can indoctrinate them.”
The Atlantic chronicles the mysterious, meteoric rise of Shein. Little is known about the company, its profits, or “the world’s most anonymous CEO,” as The Wall Street Journal has called Shein’s founder. Not even reports of illegal labor practices, shady sourcing, allegations of artistic infringement, and an overall lack of transparency about its business operations seem to be slowing down the brand’s popularity. By the end of 2022, the retailer accounted for 50% of U.S. fast-fashion sales, compared to 12% in January 2020. And a “Sheinification” of the industry is nigh: It’s reported that Shein will start selling its technology to other brands, meanwhile other copycat sites are cropping up, H&M is speeding up production times, and Amazon is shortening delivery times.
The Wall Street Journal examines the crushing financial burden of aging at home. About three-quarters of Americans age 50 and older want to live as long as possible in their current home. And around one-fourth of those 65 and older will eventually require significant support and services for more than three years. Rising costs of in-home care are making it near impossible for families to get by: The median cost of a home health aide increased to $33 an hour from $20 in 2015, and round-the-clock in-home care goes for $290,000 (that’s more than double the annual median cost of a private room in a nursing home facility and four times the annual median cost of a private room in assisted living). Factor in the fact that about a third of retirees can’t afford a year of minimal care, and only about 10% of adults 65 and older have long-term-care insurance.
TIME weighs in on a popular stance that AI may not steal many jobs after all, it may just make workers more efficient. For instance, IKEA has used chatbots to handle routine customer inquiries and has retrained employees for more complex tasks, like advising customers on interior design and fielding complicated calls. “The White House Council of Economic Advisers said last month that it found ‘little evidence that AI will negatively impact overall employment.’ The advisers noted that history shows technology typically makes companies more productive, speeding economic growth and creating new types of jobs in unexpected ways.” An outplacement firm which tracks job cuts noted that “it has yet to see much evidence of layoffs that can be attributed to labor-saving AI.”
Feeling suddenly older? Scientists see aging ‘waves’ at 44 and 60. Instead of growing older gradually, new research shows that major biomolecular shifts crescendo at certain points in life. For instance, the study reveals people in their mid-40s experience changes in how their body metabolizes alcohol and fat, which leads to weight gain and sensitivity to liquor. Meanwhile, those in their 60s had significant shifts in molecules linked to carbohydrate metabolism, kidney function and immune regulation. The good news is that lifestyle changes or medications may play a part in influencing these age-related markers.
Portfolio News:
Glossier CEO Kyle Leahy is named one of WWD x FN x Beauty Inc 50 Women in Power 2024.
Fast Company interviews Noplace CEO Tiffany Zhong for their Rapid Response podcast.
AdAge and AdWeek take a look at The Farmer’s Dog’s new NFL ad.
Glossier’s latest recipients for their Grant Program are announced in Business of Fashion.
TechCrunch and WWD report that Oura has acquired metabolic health startup Veri.
WWD covers the launch of Ritual’s Fertility Support 3-in-1 Drink Mix, with quotes from CEO Katerina Schneider.
Forerunner Highlights:
Our Founder and Partner Kirsten Green is highlighted in Business of Fashion, referencing our thesis about how consumers are overburdened by choices and how AI could change online product search and discovery.
There are ~565 open jobs at Forerunner portfolio companies, check them out.