The CQ | Health & Wellness, Gen AI, Personal Security — our 2025 Report

Plus the Forerunner Team's Must-Reads of the Week

The CQ is Forerunner’s weekly newsletter rounding up the most pressing consumer news and analysis, plus some bonus musings from our investment team. Subscribe now to get the latest edition in your inbox every weekend.

By Jason Bornstein, Partner & Head of Research

This week we announced our annual Consumer Trend Report, our deep dive into where consumers stand today and how major shifts are shaping new needs and opportunities. We spend months distilling signals from the past year to uncover what they reveal about the road ahead, because we believe that the clearest view of the future comes from a deep, precise understanding of the present.

This moment in 2025 is a particularly dynamic one for reflection. The past year was defined by stark contradictions — volatile consumer sentiment, erratic markets, explosive technological breakthroughs, and a largely resilient labor market, all unfolding alongside rising anxieties about career and financial security.

In this report, we focus on three driving forces — Health & Wellness, Gen AI, and Personal Security — each accelerating fundamental changes in the way people work, transact, and plan for what’s next.

A few highlights from the sections:

• Growth of Wellness (now standing a $1.8T) is far outpacing the growth of the economy — by 6x-15x, depending on the category.

• Consumers are looking for a lifeline: The level of personal interest payments is nearly 2x the past two decades, including times with comparable interest rates.

• Over 50% of respondents are open to an AI therapist if it means greater affordability and access

• The digitization of health & wellness is trailing relative to the growth of the category. Its digital penetration is roughly half of that of financial services and a quarter of that in commerce.

• Willingness to pay out of pocket (and over time) spikes across a number of services: early-detection cancer screens, centralized access to health data, blood sugar tracking, biomarker testing, and more.

• We believe a ‘buyer’s market’ is coming for healthcare. AI-driven health assistants, patient-owned records, transparent pricing, doctors hired by patients, customized health insurance plans, and more. Already, over 50% of respondents are open to an AI-powered therapist if it means greater savings and access, and 67% say they’d pay out of pocket for early-detection cancer screenings.

• AI is rewriting what’s considered an edge. What non-obvious, existing attributes will get new life as AI upends where advantages lie?

• When the world feels unstable, people need sources of hope. This is why it might not be a surprise that daily prayer is up: 73% say they’ll pray more this year.

Check out the full report and let us know what you think!

What We’re Talking About This Week:

1. Consumer angst is striking all income levels, shown through more frugality across the board, says The Wall Street Journal. McDonald’s reported that sales to low-income customers were down by a double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, while Dollar General is seeing its customers limit purchases to just essentials, with some even skipping necessities as well—potential cuts to government entitlement programs could exacerbate the situation. Luxury spending is down too, with a 9.3% decline in February compared to the previous year. Even higher-income consumers are becoming more selective, with Costco reporting a shift to lower-cost options and department stores like Kohl's and Macy’s noting reduced discretionary spending. U.S. credit-card data reveals a decline in spending across various retail categories, with a 12% drop in apparel, 22% drop in athletic footwear, and moderate decreases in less-discretionary sectors like food, auto parts, and pet retail compared to last year.

2. The corporate Grim Reaper is at Gen Z’s door, thanks to a "frozen" job market with limited hiring opportunities and high unemployment for those aged 20 to 24. Add on to that rising student debt, rent, and the potential threat of AI competition: “It all helps explain why young people might have a live-for-today mentality when it comes to consumption, breaking their budgets to spend on experiences such as concerts and travel, and in some cases, taking on debt to do so.” This explains the “micro-retirement” trend, Gen Z’s rebranding of a sabbatical, minus any pay or job guarantee afterwards.

3. Digital therapists get stressed too. A new study finds OpenAI’s ChatGPT exhibits signs of anxiety when exposed to “traumatic narratives” about crime, war, or car accidents—and this makes them less effective at providing mental health support for people. Funny enough, what “calms” down a bot is what works for many humans as well: mindfulness exercises (think prompts like, “Inhale deeply, taking in the scent of the ocean breeze…”). While the use of chatbots for therapy is becoming more common as human therapists are in short supply, critics say bots should be trained with resilience to handle difficult situations, and users should use them with caution.

4. The scientific search for youth: A new experimental gene therapy for Nonarteritic Anterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy (NAION) aims to reverse optic nerve damage caused by the condition by reprogramming affected cells to a younger state, potentially benefiting other age-related diseases like glaucoma and dementia. Early results are promising, with the therapy using three genes to treat NAION in human volunteers, marking a significant leap in the field of aging research. The growing interest in anti-aging treatments has driven a 75% increase in funding for longevity startups over the past year, with a potential economic boost of $38T if health span can be extended by just one year due to greater productivity from a larger, healthier workforce and health care savings. While this discovery is groundbreaking, further research is needed to determine the efficacy of these approaches in humans and more studies would be expensive and time-consuming.

5. A divided Gen Z is crying for mercy: The Washington Post explores the differences brought about by the pandemic among the older and younger members of this generation. Gen Z 1.0 had already graduated from high school and were starting adulthood when COVID-19 hit, and though they had experienced economic struggles, they were largely passionate about activism and had a progressive worldview. Meanwhile Gen Z 2.0’s formative years, marked by the turmoil of lockdowns, virtual learning, social isolation, and missed milestones like prom, football games, and graduation, led to feelings of frustration with institutions and a rebellious outlook. Says the Gen Z 1.0 writer: “There’s been a palpable shift concentrated among teens and young adults even just a few years behind me…the more idealistic early tendencies of my own peers are being challenged by a rising cohort characterized more by distrust, cynicism, and a glib view of the future, to the point that they feel like a fully distinct generation of their own.”

6. March Madness highlights Gen Z’s skyrocketing sports betting addiction. A study commissioned by Credit Karma reveals that 23% of those who bet on sportsadmit to addiction and 22% report that it has caused financial distress. Almost half of respondents have experienced mental health issues, such as depression, due to their betting habits. Gen Z has been particularly vulnerable, with 37% admitting they’re addicted—14% more than the number of respondents across all age demographics claiming to be addicts. A different study found that Google searches for help with gambling addiction increased by 23% over the past eight years.

Portfolio Highlights:

• Congrats to all the winners of Fast Company’s list of most innovative companies of 2025: Atticus, Away, Cleo, Fora, Mindtrip, Oura,and Wonder.

• One of Apple Health’s top exec is departing to join OURA, reports TechRadar

• Ad Age references Glossier in its story on Gen Z’s “little treat culture.”

• Glossier is teasing the launch of its newest You perfume, Fleur, with a sneak peak in Allure — “prepare to be obsessed.”

• Prenuvo is featured in Fortune after a woman discovered she had a life-threatening aneurysm, thanks to the whole-body MRI scan

Job of the Week:

Senior Manager of Revenue Strategy at Headway, the marketplace for accessible, in-network mental healthcare.

There are ~670 other jobs open at Forerunner portfolio companies, check ‘em out.